By K P Paswan.
It is not only difficult and impossible to predict the
outcome of the American presidential election. But whoever wins he or she will
have plenty of works to do. But most important will be relations between the US
and China Xi Jinping has heralded a new era in global politics. New POTUS will
try to project the American strength while calling for close cooperation on
If Trump occupies the Oval Office than he will realize that
the Chinese authoritarian capitalist model is not supposed to survive in a
global free market and China is not only distrusted but hated for its Gift
Trade Trap. But he has to acknowledge
that China is the single most powerful economic actor in the global economy and
the US was responsible for the rise of China by sacrificing Japan. But he will
have solace that in a new global order China cannot thrive Sooner or later
China may be need fundamental political reforms , in absence of which China cannot sustain its state capitalist system. While
the US economy remains the world’s largest, China’s ability to to use state owned companies to boost the
party’s domestic and foreign influences
ensures that the emerging giant is on
track to surpass US within ten years The US is hardly irrelevant. The dollars
remain the global reserve currency , a privilege that will likely last for decades to come. Wealthy Chinese are
purchasing lands in the US and their presence in California on large scale is being disliked by majority of Americans as
the Chinese are the largest group of illegal migrants. For the American Russia and the US are competitive rivals and Russia must not allow to cross the limit of a Regional power. But Russia has never claimed as a Superpower and after the end of Cold War Russian economy is in shamble. It is fighting an expensive war in Ukraine and due to rich in oil and natural gas its economy has not collapse and on the contrary it has withstood the American sanctions and has hypnotized the entire world
More space for India is needed. There is apocryphal story that the present Indian PM visited a country which is also a member of EU. He visited a site where the workers were building a canal, He asked his host why the workers using shovels and wheelbarrows rather than modern equipment, he was told that the project's purpose was to generate jobs. Time has changed but the reality remains that it is far easier for Modi to command Indian officials to create and protect jobs New Delhi offers direct financial and political support for its strategic industries. Xiaoping protects Chinese companies charged with stealing the intellectual property of foreign firms. No such protection is granted in India
At the same time leaders of other emerging power with a strong democracy like India is following China’s lead in building system where government embraces commerce while tightening control over domestic policies
Slow and steady
growth of economy in India must not be
overlooked. By toppling the Modi government
the US and its allies assume that the long arc of human development bends towards liberal democracy but what if they
are wrong in the context of India.
The level of protection is important in an age when the most important variable globally will be the pace and and scale of technological change. Technological upheaval is poised to displace hundred of thousands of workers in the developing world including many who only recently risen from poverty, India may be cited as an example. Modi's government finer control of its economy will help absorb some of the shock that will have bigger effects elsewhere.
A few American economists have termed the Indian economy as joke as they are inspired by a former governor bank governor of India who made mess of Indian banking system. an Indian American is the president of the World Bank and he does not indulge in gibberish talk of Indian economy India is overpopulated and highly polarized.
India and the US are neither rivals nor competitive enemies. US is witnessing many developed countries with awe and wonder. Economy has become multi polar and China which was actually made by the US is posing serious threat to US hegemony. Fortunately China is not a Superpower and is not in a position to disturb the balance of power.In order to maintain its status as the only Superpower the US cannot tolerate stable government based upon democratic principles. Entire Latin America is at the mercy of the US. With the collapse of USSR, Africa is confused. China cannot be trusted and former colonial power UK has become economically sick. Africans are migrating to European countries for better future but irony is that these immigrants are not welcomed in the European countries as majority of immigrants follow a religion alien to European countries. India may play balancing act in several fields. Illegal immigrants from neighboring Bangladesh is presenting alarming political and economic situations but there is no fear of large scale immigrants from Africa and Latin America. India is exporting hard wares, medicines and foodstuffs to different countries of Africa and there is no dissent against India. India has friendly relations with oil rich Islamic countries and the only and chronic problem for India is Pakistan a bankrupt and self proclaimed theological country with Nukes under its possession. Pakistan is unlikely to get away from heavy external debt till dooms day. Rich Islamic states are fed up with extending financial help to Pakistan. The US may use Pakistan to foment trouble in India and in Iran. At the same time the US wants a credible friend if not an ally and India is proving a friend of that nature. In the past Russia rescued India from many humiliations but changing dynamics of diplomacy demands closer tie between India and US and that is happening.
In the Ukraine crisis India remains neutral despite of the facts that Ukraine supplied deadly arms to Pakistan to kill Indians. American sanctions have failed to cripple the Russian economy as almost every member of EU is indirectly helping Russia to violate sanctions. Russia is a winning position in Ukraine even though it suffered several setbacks. But the end of Ukraine crisis depends upon dialogue between Putin and Zelensky and India has taken initiative to bring Russia and Ukraine on the negotiating table. With change in guard in the WH we may expect an end of Ukraine crisis.
The world may have replaced uni polar world and a few political scientists are fond of calling the world Multi polar. But it needs elaboration. As the US remains the only superpower
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