DIPLOMAT’S EYES. BIDEN AND PUTIN FACES EACH OTHER.

By K P PASWAN,

It is certainly hypothetical question, if there is direct military confrontation between US and Russia. Both are nuclear  powered nations with capacity to destroy this planet many times. Both loved to hate each other and both are afraid of growing military and economic growth of China which is slowly expanding its undefined political and economic agenda all over the world.

In the video conversation, president Joe Biden warned Putin not to invade Ukraine. Biden threatened tougher economic sanctions in case of Russian military adventure in Ukraine. This reflects, reactionary warning of a weak president as Russia will never invade Ukraine.

In the context of Russian massive military build up to warn the Comedian who is now the elected president of UKRAINE to not join NATO. Now expansion of NATO aims at  fighting the growing threat of religious terrorism, unknowingly encouraged by former Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. If expansion of NATO means inclusion of Ukraine than this country in future may present itself a threat to American political ambitions. Russia will not allow expansion of NATO to threaten the sovereignty of the present Russia. 

Virtual meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin has averted impending crisis as neither US or EU is in a position to invest heavily just to protect Ukraine, famous for all sorts of crimes including arms supply to terrorists and drug trafficking to spend for lavish style.

 Both US and Russia are drifting towards China for different reasons. US is bent upon deriving maximum benefits from trade with China while Russia wants to counter US monopoly over world politics, this is really interesting phase in contemporary international relations.For same reasons both these superpowers will never fight with each other.

 Joe Biden and Putin are aware of Cuban crisis during the period of J Kennedy when Nikita Khrushchev tried to deploy deadly weapons in Cuba which threatened the sovereignty of US. Khrushchev had to withdraw in a humiliating manner. This time situation is different as it is US which is trying to surround Russia with hostile forces in the name of expansion of NATO.

Russia and US are battling the wrath of pandemic which has mocked the destructive nature of nuclear arsenal as the virus is more dangerous than the combined nuclear strength of both of these powers. Both Russia and US will create political and economic problems  for each other but will refrain from direct face off as the collateral damage shall never be repaired and the world politics will easily fall into the hands of criminals.

In recent years US has suffered severe setbacks in different parts of the world, but mainly in central Asia and far and East. US has failed to dislodge All Basar Assad as the president of Syria and the destruction of Iraq in the name of imaginary chemical weapons has tarnished its image, Iran is another headache. Russia may create political problems for US while negotiating new nuclear deal with Iran by US. Iran, being ruled by Ayatollahs is more modern and secular than some of the so-called Sunnis majority states with whom US has strategic collaborations to counter the Russian influence. Both Russia and US know that radicals in Islam cannot be tamed as they are serving the purposes of several prosperous nations.

 In Afghanistan, terrorists carrying heavy rewards on their heads are running the administration with American help and Russia finds itself in peculiar position as in Afghanistan it is China and not US which is involved in dirty politics.

 Russia has also created problems in far and east.  Russia and China has extended all types of support to tiny North Korea which is threatening  to not only  US but Japan and South Korea too. Russia may fish in trouble water by supporting China’s stand on  Taiwan as China has claimed Vladivostok of Russia as its own parts. Russia shall not allow China to create problems for Russia with strategic help from US.

 EU and rest of Europe may witness political and economic upheaval in near future. Germany has always been a prosperous state but badly failed to become a leading military power. Germany played important role in both the world wars only to be defeated and humiliated by winners. With collapse of colonialism, European countries can survive by cooperating both in economic and political fields. EU was created for this purpose but a willy Angela Merker twisted and tailored major decisions taken in Brussels in favor of Germany. By opening border for refugees from war torn countries of the Middle East, entire Europe is clouded with the threat of religious based terrorism. Angela Merkel cared little for other than Germany and her successor may loss the clout enjoyed by Germany. 

 France and Germany never expressed sincere condolence to US after twin tower attack, Donald Trump was aware of complicated international relations and did not pay much attention to terrorist activities in France and Germany as these two countries benefited much from famous NEW DEAL, but in return neither France or Germany proved reliable friends of US. Germany under Angela Merkel developed profitable trade relations with China and Russia, but Putin’s dislike for Angela is a known fact and reasons may be traced back to pre-unification era of Germany, New Chancellor may not be able to follow the policies of his predecessor as Germany cannot sustain economic prosperity by following hostile policy towards China and Russia. 

US is not in a position   to neglect Germany as entire EU has trade relations with China and Russia and any slight pressure upon Germany will adversely affect the economy of entire Europe,

 In the same manner US would use Ukraine a pawn to brow beat Russia but the hostility is unlikely to result in a major conflict with Russia. France has never been an ardent supporter of US and president Macron will not support US’s political ambitions by expansion of NATO  to include Ukraine as France has no enmity with Russia.

 Nuclear deal with Iran was supported by entire EU and was opposed by  Donald Trump  who scrapped the deal. Fed up with economic sanctions rulers of Iran may reach an agreement with US and thereby undermining the influence of EU.

UK is always a trusted friend of US,  post Brexit, UK will have to depend heavily upon US for logistic support.

 Ukraine is one country hated by Russia and disliked by the West, but Ukraine occupies strategic position and US may find an opportunity to humiliate Russia. UK sent the Royal destroyer at the behest of Pentagon in the Black sea immediately after G -7 meeting. UK , once again sent the destroyer to South China sea in the month of September 2021 just to placate US, Constitution of AKUS is nothing but serious attempt to take maximum advantage of trade by adopting hate and love policy to China, Australia refused to buy French submarines at the behest of US and leaving France to realize that it has no role to play where US interest clash with France.

INDIA AND AFGHANISTAN. US is following, too some extent pro-Taliban policy in Afghanistan and is not allowing Russia and India to expand its sphere of influence. Pakistan with its fragile economy may not be able to sustain its political activities in Afghanistan for a long time. Avoiding debt trap, internal borrowing appears to be only viable solution if an impending economic doom is to be averted in Pakistan.  In the name of extending humanitarian aids to Afghanistan, India has unsuccessfully tried to achieve some  political success but has failed. Putin’s visit to Mew Delhi is likely to clear the cloud of suspicion between India and Russia and US would go to any extent in  discourage India to acquire S—400 missile system which is more effective than American missiles that is S-- 35.

 Joe Biden is not a dynamic president, he is facing internal and external problems and is unable to dictate the politics of the world. US has under its possession deadly economic sanction.With this weapon US would not allow Putin and XiJinping to dictate the world. 

 FINAL WORDS, There is no threat of an apocalyptic confrontation between two super powers either in near or even in distant future.