CLIMATE CHANGE, THREATENING HUMAN RACE.

By K P PASWAN

 We need pollution and pollutants for our survival. We cannot get energy and electricity without coal and petroleum products. Climate change is a different issue, which cannot be solved either by a vaccine or declaration like Tokyo Protocol or Paris Accord. The serious problems of climate change can only be tackled by an enlightened  global approach, which is not going to happen in near or even in distant future.  Every manufacturing units and even articles of daily use, whether big or small are responsible for emission of Carbon Dioxide, Methane gas and other ingredients responsible for hole in Ozone. These industries are necessary for survival, even if it means, inviting disease like Cancer and breathing trouble, for which there is no permanent cure. A teenager like Greta Thunberg is awakening human race for impending doom. But who cares?

Every country with an emerging economy. for which an open democracy is of paramount importance.  is always in conflict with others  for industrial development.  Political heads will go to any extent to achieve economic prosperity.  We have climate change, which is more lethal and more contagious than Covid virus. Climate change is not of recent origin, it begins with the dawn of civilization and will continue till our final moment. There is no escape route for climate change.

 ICE AGE IN THE PAST. There are conflicting opinions, whether industrial progress alone is contributing to climate change? Donald Trump, the former president of US was dead against Paris Accord, which lay down guidelines for maintaining increase in temperature between 1.5 to2 degree Celsius. Donald Trump was being advised by a group of scientists with conflicting views, like whether some unseen natural phenomenon was causing climate change or human race is spreading pollution beyond Stratosphere? It is virtually impossible to understand natural phenomenon, except quoting  Ice Age. Donald Trump believed in the past Ice age, responsible for climate change, and discarded Paris Accord.

 Honestly speaking Paris accord is discriminatory and if implemented in its present form, US will be singled out to ban use of coal, while EU and China in general, might be benefited. Donald Trump in a fit of rage, described Russia and India as filthy countries, while he spared China, which is next to US in polluting the atmosphere. In recent months US is facing the wrath of nature in the form of severe hurricanes, causing untold misery and even death.

 Considering that Ozone(normal) protects us from harmful effects of ultra violet rays, and depletion would increase in severe form of respiratory diseases. We are aware of Green House effect, thick layer of Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen etc. There is no need to mention the names of gases or substances, responsible for polluting the atmosphere. Everything which evolved and is evolving in this planet is poisoning the atmosphere. This is known as Second Law of Thermodynamics, meaning entropy or disorder in a closed system will continue to increase, Paris Accord may slow down this process, but cannot be completely stopped.

FOUR LAYERS. All over the world, school going children are being taught about five layers from ground level to 1000 kms above the earth. First layer called Troposphere followed by Stratosphere, Mesosphere. Thermosphere and the last one is called Exosphere, beyond which, pollution and pollution are mixed, there is nothing but cold space. If we are to survive than we have to keep areas up to 15 to 16^th kms above earth clean.  All these layers have played important roles, in  making this planet suitable for human beings, the planet is being inhabited by intelligence people, who questions about climate change, even after knowing that we are responsible for polluting the atmosphere. Attempts were made to address the issue by Tokyo protocol/declaration, but nothing happened till 2014, when Paris Agreements were signed and ratified by almost (Excluding Iran and Turkey) every country in the world.

QUALITY OF AIR. These days prominent TV channels are broadcasting temperature of different cities of the world, along with display of air quality which is horrifying. It is so because for combating rise in temperature, we have several methods, but for combating bad air quality, there are few options available, these options are being discussed by experts and politicians, but no effective actions have so far been taken for fear of bad impact on economy. James Carry the former Secretary of State under Obama, now as a envoy of Climate change, has few options  for him to consider and if implemented with full force, then China, Russia and India will have to be excluded from the group of nations causing maximum pollution.

By the end of this century. US is supposed to colonize the Red Planet and perhaps establishing human settlement in one of the satellites of Jupiter. But human settlement in outer space cannot solve the problems on the earth. Some of experts are trying to make us believe that rate of population growth all over the world was shrinking, they quote the example of Russia and Japan. This is surprising as scientific reasons for decrease in population have not been given, but we know that the earth is overburdened with population and will continue to sustain it, till the earth became polluted enough to cloud the human race with constant acid rain.

 PARIS AGREEMENT. Signed in 2016 12 Dec15, and ratified by 196 states, is supposed to minimise the climate catastrophe. Global mean temperature may rise by 3.2C by the end of this century. To limit global temperature, annual emission must be below 25 gigatons by 2030. With Paris commitments, emissions will be 56 Gt by 2030 which is nearing, and we see increase in emissions, culprits being five countries. Kyoto Protocol does not differentiate between developed and developing countries. Now as per Paris Agreement developing countries have to submit plans for emission reductions.

 After exit of Donald Trump, new president Joe Biden has joined the Paris agreement. We are eager to know the fate of this accord. Agreement on climate change which aims at maintaining increase in global temperature of less than or equal to 1.5 Degree and Green House Emission of gases must be carefully monitored and progress has to be reviewed every five years. Since Paris Agreement is mandatory, so every country whether developed or developing are required to follow the agreement sincerely. Here is the greatest obstacle. Recent assault by severe hurricanes and melting of Arctic are indications that Paris agreement is only of academic interest and countries like China, and almost all the oil producing countries are more interested in fighting political battle to remain in power, than preventing the impending doom. 

 As per Paris agreement, the four top emitters of greenhouse gasses, in decreasing order of annual emissions China, United States, EU27 and India, contributed over 55% of the world's total emissions over the last decade. Among these top four emitters, some have actually increased their annual emissions: China's emissions grew 1.6% in 2018 to reach a high of 13.7 Gt of CO2 equivalent. The U.S., which is responsible for 13% of global emissions, saw emissions rise by 2.5% in 2018. To meet the 1.5C target, by 2030 the U.S. would have to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 57-63% below 2005 levels, according to a report by Climate Change, this can be achieved by closing coal-based industries in US, this is mischievous as such step will see China as an economic power beyond imagination. The European Union emits 8.5% of global emissions, and has seen its emissions decline 1% every year across the last decade. EU emissions declined 1.3% in 2018. India's 7% of global emissions grew 5.5% in 2018 but its emissions per capita is one of the lowest within the G2.

Coming once again to Paris agreement, it is almost impossible to maintain temperature at agreed level unless all the coal-based industries are closed. There is no alternative. Aerosol used extensively in breathing trouble is being replaced by more sophisticated and less pollutant breathing apparatus, but not completely free from toxic effect. Paris agreement needs rectification. The rectified agreement must be enforced within the ambit of UNO.  ICE AGE visited in the past, we are concerned with present and future. We are the final arbitrators and there must not be complacency.

EVALUATION. Human race is unlikely to survive the climate change without global enlightened approach. In next century, large spacecrafts, with men and women on board will roam in outer space in search of a better place to live in. This is a pessimist view, but neither supporters or opponents of Paris agreement can deny this.