ECHO OF THIRD WORLD WAR.(updated)

BY K P PASWAN.

 

Meeting between Joe Biden, and Vladimir Putin in Genoa, set the stage for their most passionate argument relating to cyber-attack. Within fifteen days of summit, the world witnessed political drama which may be called as show of strength.

CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER. 

“Sinking of British Royal Destroyer will not lead to third world war, so call back your destroyer." Putin warned to Britain, after Britain send the Royal destroyer in the Black Sea, most probably instructed by Pentagon, to express solidarity with Ukraine, which is desperate to join NATO, but opposed by Russia, as it fears surrounding Russia with hostile countries with nuclear arsenals. Interestingly, no EU member supports the entry of Ukraine either in EU or NATO for fear of economic considerations. This incident happened after few days of meeting between Biden and Putin in Genoa.

Second world war was fought, when colonialism was breathing heavily. Hitler was bent upon destroying the Jews by all means in fact it was Germany which  suffered beyond repair. Churchill, the war time PM of UK was suffering from bi polar disorder, but his strategy, paved the way for victory of the allies’ power. US emerged as a monster, threatening the entire world with dire consequences, if they go against the economic and political philosophy of US.This declaration was made by US Secretary of State, Faster Dulles.

Economically entire world in general and the European nations in particular suffered badly by Second World war. US resorted to economic charity by introducing Marshall plan and New Deal to help its allies. S Truman, president of US cultivated friendship with, Stalin the strongman,  of USSR, which emerged as a potential challenger to capitalism. Stalin resorted to a different type of expansion of communist ideology, through out the world and in the process, USSR was turned into a Black Hole from which no information escaped.In international politics, it was called as Iron Curtain.

 Human race has a strange instinct of survival. It is said that in the British empire, there was no sunset.  After the end of second world war, Commonwealth of nations, headed by British monarch remained a strong binding forces between nations, which were once colonies of Great Britain. NATO founded to protect western countries from USSR and NATO acted as a strong shield against any attack sponsored by Stalin.

 Another poor and underdeveloped country, China under Mao introduced cultural revolution and started expanding its influence in a different way. It successfully projected the real face of poverty, widely prevailed in African and Asian countries and held the colonial powers responsible for exploiting the underdeveloped countries. Mao was right in his philosophy. China needed help from capitalists’ countries, mainly from US to boost its economic and manufacturing process, for which latest technology was essential, USSR had excellent technology to explore the space and produced deadly weapons of destruction, which led to cold war, as the West was frightened, but these technology was not beneficial to China.

 Now there are sufficient  reasons to believe that Communist USSR never offered, these technologies to China.

 US president Richard Nixon along with his brilliant diplomat and the author of Détente era diplomacy, Henry Kissinger visited China in Feb 1971 and the world changed. Nixon’s visit to China heralded a new era of strategic and economic cooperation between capitalists and communists. USSR was an unstable conglomerate of small countries with different religious and cultural backgrounds, which were forcibly occupied by Lenin. Sooner or later USSR was bound to collapse like house of cards. USA was eagerly waiting for the golden moment which was not far away.

 After Stalin’s death USSR made rapid progress in space and nuclear technology  and equipped its war planes with nuclear arsenals, so much so that fear gripped the western countries that USSR was set to rule the world. But Marxism is a strange political philosophy and some of its edicts violate the principles, set up not by any political thinkers of the past, but by nature itself, like freedom of speech and survival instinct. China, though remained Communist country, but compromised ambitious projects of turning entire world as fiefdom of Marx.

 China began to progress slowly and with the import of latest technology from Western countries, its economy distanced itself from the basic philosophy of Marxist ideology.

USSR collapsed and  Russia emerged as an economically weak country, unable to attain self sufficiency in food grains and modern medicines. It is no longer a super power, standing at per with US. It is struggling to improve its economy by proper use of its vast natural resources. It is still superior to China in space exploration and will never exploit natural resources of underdeveloped countries, while China, despite of its outstanding economic growth will have to depend upon imports of raw materials from other countries. 

Some of the journalists and leftists’ intellectuals in India view China as very rich in natural resources, but that is far from reality.

China is also witnessing revival of Tibetan form of Buddhism and this has led serious sectarian conflict with the Uighur Muslims. Tibetan form of Buddhism, which is based on a particular form of Upanishads of Hindu philosophy, is being  revived in Japan and Taiwan Revival of this peaceful religion may antagonise followers of other religions and West is likely to spread false propaganda against China, and may denounce China as an intolerant country. These western thinkers are already accusing India of being bias in religious matter. It must be recognized that vulgar type of secularism is found only in India, but this cannot cause a world war.

SCOPE OF THIRD WORLD WAR. Local issues predominated in the first and second world war. Every country involved in these two world wars was a colonial power, competing with each other in plundering rich Africa. Hitlers desire to eliminate the Jews, was the core issue for which some of the participating nations were secretly helping Hitler and they are still followers of Hitlers antisemitic ideology. A large number of Americans, French, German and British are still antisemitic as per one report, prepared by American think tanks.

ROLE OF RUSSIA. US is bent upon humiliating Russia, but it is not going to serve the interest of US. If Russia is not given an equal status, then it means catastrophe. The millions of people belonging to erstwhile USSR are still living in abject poverty. Putin has played his hand well, splitting his rival US and his, ally China. Russia has no territorial ambition and has no philosophy of terror to export. Communism is fading away, paving the way for a democratic Russia. Putin has learned much lesion from the astronomical rise of China, which is still not a free democratic country. Restricted freedom of speech and suppressing corruption among the newly rich business house like Alibaba has contributed to an improved quality of life of common people in modern China. Vladimir Putin will try to isolate US in key areas, like Eastern Europe and the Middle East. But Russia will never participate in a war, where it has to face US.

PAKISTAN. This country is no longer needed either by US or Russia as Pakistan is not going to serve their purpose.Despite of Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan, Pakistan is  not going to achieve international goodwill. With arrival of a torrent of Chinese aid, Pakistan’s battered economy is beginning to recover Surprisingly Pakistan is also facing crippling blockade by Islamic nations including Saudi Arabia. Strict enforcement of Sharia based laws have no effect,t but the minority Shias, Ahmadis Muslims and left-over Hindus are the worst victim of a theocratic Pakistan. It has huge nuclear arsenal, but it cannot nuke its traditional rival India, as it will be crippled within hours. No Muslims countries will send army to fight India on behalf of a country, glorifying religious terrorism. Military backed Imran Khan will continue to export terrorists to India. Pakistan’s isolation means it has devised darker ways to bring in foreign capital, in absence of which smuggling of narcotics, particularly crystal meth, counterfeit pharmaceuticals and currencies are likely to increase.

TALIBAN, represents groups of fanatics who do not believe in democracy. Surprisingly Taliban has dissociated itself from Uighur Muslims of China, which reflect shift in its ideology. Emergence of moderate Talibans do not augur well for a theocratic Pakistan,  which, has succeeded in establishing a pro Pakistani Govt in Kabul Any way Afghanistan, with or without Talibans is not going to cause world war. Taliban has established control over Afghanistan, With its medieval  religious philosophy, Afghanistan is fast becoming hub of extremists like ISIS. Al Qaida and some unknown religious terrorists. Pakistan, in the long run is likely to suffer heavily as mass exodus of Afghans refugees in Pakistan is likely to have bad impact upon its economy.

  EU. For member countries of EU, there is nothing left for plunder in rich Africa. With spread of education and internet, most of the African countries with vast natural resources are slowly moving towards democracy, which means trouble for former colonial powers. UK remained till second world war as the most infamous plunderer of economics of third world. Churchill  was a racist, hater of India and under him UK was able to sustain a prolonged war as British industries were flourishing at the cost of Africa. With loss of colonies, Britain is no longer in a position to stabilize its dwindling economy and Nepolian was right in dubbing Britain as a nation of shop keepers.   British handling of its economy has to be watched carefully.  In any widespread war Britain will side with US, as its economic interests is likely to serve better

UK has been the most opportunistic country in the world. This country will go to any extent to keep the past glory intact. Capt Nelson was not a great British commander. He was a ruthless pirate of the Caribbean and helped Great Britain in times of financial crisis. It was Nelson who defeated France. If UK smells financial gain in any type of war including a world war, it will gladly participate, as is evident, sending its Destroyer in the Black sea just to please US. It has not learned any lesson from Falkland crisis.

 Middle East cannot and shall never be a cause of third world war. Entire middle east is dependent upon oil which helped several Islamic countries to modernize its economy as well as exported  religion-based terrorism, but oil cannot generate more employment as is evident from influx of refugees from central Asia to west. Plenty of oil and natural gas have enabled Muslims countries to create infrastructure for better housing and health facilities, but many countries which used to import oil from the middle east have become self sufficient and the demand of less oil has led to sharp decline in oil prices. Oil money is also being used  to spread terror and purchase of sophisticated weapons from the west and US to indulge in local war just to exhibit its military strength. War in Yemen, Syria and Iraq bear testimony to this strange combination of politics,religion and economic prosperit

IRAN.Iran is poised to acquire nuclear arsenal, just to frighten its rival Saudi Arabia and certainly, preparing the ground for third world war. Economically, Iran is suffering from American sanctions. Ayatollah Ali Khamenie is afraid of Israel since the days when MOSSAD caused mayhem at Natanz and assassinated Iran's tip nuclear scientist. Iran is causing troubles for its rivals and cannot be a cause of third world war.

 The balance of economic power in the world changes, must not be balance of political power changes too. In Asia, China’s rise has helped push India and Japan closer to  the United States. Economic power is not the same as political power. Most developing countries are still militarily pipsqueaks. Before the outbreak of Coronavirus, rise of China was supposed to be balanced by the rise of India, but that race is almost over, China has no potential rival except US and to some extent Russia. A world in which most people enjoy prosperity and opportunity is certainly better than one in which 80% are mired in economic stagnation and corruption. No alliance of  interests bring all these very different countries together in the way that history and culture  have united Europe and America

South China Sea is a grave military concern for small countries bordering China. China is not traditionally developed country. China has threatened to nuke Japan on the issue of Taiwan, but China can only make noises. It may not be difficult for US to sanction China, which is more deadly than nuclear weapons and US is employing political and economic sanction to punish its opponents and serve its political and economic superiority without participating in any kind of war. US is bound to defend Japan in case of attack by any country. If for some reasons US fails to act in time, then Japan has the capacity to inflict excruciating pain to China and in any case, with or without American, Japan will not allow Chinese missiles loaded with nuclear arsenal to cross the peninsula.

 We have to take up the situation in Europe once again to explore the possibility of creating circumstances of world war. UK is facing disintegration. If once again referendum is held in Scotland, then formation of a sovereign Scotland cannot be ruled out, in that case UK may turn out to be a small state with week economy. Post Brexit UK violated fishing laws which was challenged by France. Only Germany is in a position to sustain its economic growth against all odds.  Most of the profit-making German’s MNCs are stationed in China and in underdeveloped countries of Africa and Latin America.

EVALUATION. “US would cease to be a super power by 2040, and the politics of world would be taken over by criminals, involved in drug trafficking and  religious terrorism, Neither Russia nor China would be able to control these war mongers. This prediction was made by a group of American political scientists which included former retired generals and political scientists.  The manner in which drugs lords and religious lunatics are being pampered in democratic countries, reflect shape of things to come. Otherwise there is not even scant hope of third world war. Russian warning to British Admiral to withdraw the British Royal Destroyer may be treated as wake-up call for peace loving people all over the world. 

FINAL THOUGHT. Only two political figures of contemporary world, Imran Khan, the PM of Pakistan and Kim Jong UN of North Korea talk of nuclear war. But these two political figures cannot dictate the world. Pakistan and N Korea are unable to provide basic facilities to common people.Vietnam war, Operation Desert Storm, war in Afghanistan and war against ISIS were deadlier than first and second world war. Human race has survived Coronavirus, but Homo Sapiens will not survive climate change and third world will never engulf this planet.It may be treated as figment of imagination.