CHINA AND RUSSIA IN BI POLAR WORLD.(updated)

 

BY K P PASWAN

 There are two super powers, fighting for supremacy and above all fighting for dictating the politics of the world.But there is also a former super power Russia, which cannot be overlooked in a bi polar world Bipolar political world is being led by US, Russia and China. There is not even scant scope of cold war, as the deadly nuclear weapons, owned by these three super powers are known to entire world. There is only psychological fear in the mind of all political heads of the contemporary world. 

After the end of second world war, US was the only super power, threatening the entire world to toe the politics of US. In the words of the then Secretary of State of US, Faster Dulles, those who did not support US, were enemies of US. USSR under Stalin, was trying its best to challenge the mighty US and achieved parity with US in military strength, but economically USSR was so stagnated, that ultimately led to fall of USSR, creating vacuum, which was filled by China.

 With the fall of USSR, mighty US remained unchallenged leader of a uni polar world, till China emerged like a monster to challenge US, both economically and militarily. USSR was fragmented and the major one known as Russia, lost not only the status of super power, but it is doubtful that Russia is even a regional power. Russia is respected, but not feared by people of the world. It is also respected, because its ability to probe the outer pace and, in all probability, China cannot match Russia, if the later tries to colonize some areas of Moon or the Mars.  Russia is hated by US, and would avail every opportunity to browbeat Russia.  Joe Biden, the US president has called Russian President Putin as a killer.In a way Russia can change the balance power if not the balance of economic power.

With rise of China as a super economic power, balance of power has shifted, not because China has achieved parity with US in military power, but because of emergence of smaller nations like Pakistan, North Korea and to some extent Israel as nuclear power, Pakistan and N Korea are poor nations in terms of GDF, but pose serious threat to international peace. Iran ruled by loathed Ayatollah Khamenei is on the threshold of acquiring nuclear weapons, which will further disturb the power equilibrium in the Middle East. 

With emergence of so many nuclear power states, balance of Power has been replaced by balance of Terror. In fact, terror activities encouraged by some rich nations like Saudi Arabia and Iran are well known and can be tackled effectively, but terror activities encouraged and funded by underdeveloped countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan may cause irreparable damage and may be compared with damage caused by dropping of atom bomb on Hiroshima.

Balance of Terror. Terrorism existed in some forms from ancient times, but there was no globalization of terrorism till 1960, when terrorists replaced conventional war with guerrillas activities, first in the middle east and then in a few countries of Latin America. US, so far enjoying the status of a superpower in a uni polar international politics, resorted conventional war to crush the anti US forces, but suffered heavily as was seen in Vietnam and to some extent in Central Asia. The Jewish state Israel struggled for survival, while the lunatics and Jihadists, opposed to Jewish State indulged in terror activities, threatening US and USSR, as both these powerful nations were working in the opposite direction. USSR was openly supplying arms to the terrorists who were opposed to Israel. Middle East became the epicenter of terrorism which disturbed the Balance of Power.

 While US being a super economic power sustained prolonged and high intensity war in Central Asia. USSR was reluctant to participate in the war and instead resorted to war by proxy, helping the terror groups in Central Asia and in Afghanistan. Communism did not flourish in a poor Africa, simply because the Communist USSR as a super power was unable to provide economic aid on a large scale.  On the contrary USSR failed to sell deadly weapons to African countries as these nations had no money to purchase Soviet made weapons. Moreover Colonial powers were still active in their former colonies and prevented USSR from making inroads into Africa. Balance of terror also led to the phenomenal economic growth of China, which under Mao Zedong, only exported terror in the guise of cultural revolution, but unlike USSR did not participate aggressively in the cold war. US is the main beneficiary of china’s passive desire for expansion of violent communist ideology.

ZONES OF CONFLICT. Strange things were happening in Europe between 1980 to 1990. Entire Europe was gripped by a tale of suspicion, subversion and spooks. Widespread evidence of USSR meddling in politics and universities prompted Ronald Reagan, the popular president of US to declare, that his country was facing unprecedented scale of foreign interference, German spy agency accused USSR of using social media to contact a large number of west Germans including laws makers and civil servants in the hope of gleaning information and recruiting sources. There had been reports of KGB agents trying to groom up. US under Ronald Reagan started to learn of possible intervention, but impending confrontation and showdown were averted, when KGB suspended all sinister designs and actions in West Germany.US asserted its position by declaring itself the only super power in an uni polar world.

COLLAPSE OF USSR. Collapse of USSR was inevitable. USSR was succeeded in creating a bipolar world, but it was going to affect its very  existence. USSR was not a homogeneous country. The Czar captured several small states with different religious and ethnic background and these small provinces never surrendered their distinctive identities to the whims of Communists. There are reasons and documented proofs that US and Europeans were fomenting troubles in these provinces. USSR was a space and nuclear power, but its agriculture was passing through terrifying phase of depression, and there was no cure in sight, without the help of foreign powers, which had in their possession latest technology to improve agriculture. Any way collapse of USSR witnessed the strengthening of uni polar world in which US was dictating the politics of world.

 RISE OF CHINA. With the fall of USSR and birth of modern Russia, US badly needed a regime with flexible loyalty. In the case of China, it is difficult to say whether Mao Zedong was a hard core communist, but its flexible political ideology was reflected in 1971, when president Richard Nixon landed in Beijing and the golden handshake between an enemy of communism and a self-proclaimed Communist changed politics of the world, this is seen as the beginning of the end of USSR.

 It is also said that somehow CIA played active role in breaking of USSR, but with or without any role played by American spy agency, USSR was determined to breakup into small states, and it certainly broke up and China emerged as a Sharp Power.

HUMILIATION OF RUSSIA. Collapse of USSR witnessed the re-emergence of uni polar world between1990 to 2100. It was now the turn of US to humiliate Russia. It may be recalled that Boris Yeltsin did not face widespread oppositions, when he disbanded communist administration. A large number of small states parted away with former USSR like Hungry, Czech, Romania, Azerbaijan and a host of others. These small countries declared themselves as independent sovereign nations, and expressed their desire to join EU and even NATO. Pathetic condition of Russian economy led to collapse of communist regimes in other parts of the world.

CHINA AND BIPOLAR POLITICS. There must not be an iota of doubt that modern China is the direct product of golden handshake between Mao and Richard Nixon in 1971. With opening of economy, China imported latest technology relating to communication, agriculture and heavy industries. It was already a nuclear power but not an economic power.

 We are told that in the decades of 1980, Japan was second largest economy. In electronic, Japan displaced Philips of Netherlands. Grundig and ITI of Germany and in the auto sector Japan posed serious threat to Ford of US. But Japan was dependent upon imports of raw materials for its manufacturing activities. China and S Korea smelt the profits and virtually hijacked and stole the latest technology from Japan. China with the help of US and a united Germany was the main beneficiary. Chinese students in US were actively engaged in stealing technology and currency manipulation. The result was the resurfacing of bipolar international politics. This means that there are only two super powers, US and China standing against each other and threatening the security of the world.

 China, despite of outstanding economic growth cannot claim to dictate the politics as it deems fit. China is rich in natural resources, but Russia’s natural resources are uncatchable. Globalization has exposed the political and economic nature of China, but the Communist China with a dose of liberal democracy, cannot sustain its economic prosperity for a long period. With limited natural resources it will be impossible to maintain its position as the second super power for a long period. 

 For natural resources China will have to court the friendship of poor countries of Africa and Latin America, these so-called poor countries are rich in natural resources and may prove as reliable sources of raw materials to China, provided, US does not involve in opposing such moves . Russia under Vladimir Putin is trying hard to attain self-sufficiency in its agriculture products and the country is spending money to create infrastructure for economic development. 

Russia is also capable to put obstacles in the path of US to create ground for strengthening friendship with small  Islamic nations ruled by autocrats  in Central Asia. Russia is supplying latest missiles and other destructive weapons to Syria, Iran and even Turkey. China is silently moving in the same direction, but with limited success, it is so because China is not trusted in any corner of the world. But Russia and US are also not trusted for some different reasons.

LIMITS OF BIPOLAR WORLD. China is a super power next to US and the international politics has turned to Bi polar. China has been described as Sharp Power. But there are limitations. China stops well short of the hard power wielded through military force or economic muscle. Sharp Power works by manipulation and pressure, the result is different from cold war, less dangerous, but harder to deal with. Russia and US were sworn enemies, but China is keenly courted as trading partner by US that is investing huge sums beyond its border This naturally gives its influence which it is using to shape debate abroad in areas, where it wants to muzzle criticism such as its political system.

Sharp power wraps all that up in something altogether more sinister. It seeks to penetrate and subvert politics and media, surreptitiously promoting a positive image of the country  misrepresenting and distorting information to suppress dissent and debate, China’s sharp power has three striking characteristics. it is pervasive, it breeds self-censorship and it is hard to nail down proof of that it is the work of Chinese state.

 Will China’s sharp power prove a success? Under XiJinping autocratic leadership, the political environment has changed dramatically. For the first time since Mao Zedong’s era, it has a highly visible strongman in charge. XiJinping has crushed rivals with a ruthless campaign against corruption and is perhaps the most honest politician wielding extraordinary power in contemporary world. 

China wants to be sure that control at home is not vulnerable to the control abroad. China’s sharp power poses conundrum to Western policymakers. Rather than learning to live with each other. China and the West might drift into sullen misapprehension. There is no question of checks and balance. N Korea and Iran can only create serious problems  in a bipolar world without any permanent solution and throwing the concept of checks and balance into dustbin.

FINAL THOUGHT. Policy makers in India, US, and the West are neither playing down the risks, nor underestimating the threat from China. Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger had created a monster to teach a lesson to USSR and Japan, but what an irony? The monster has turned into a new variant of Frankenstein, posing a serious threat to US. But the world has learned a lesson from the collapse of USSR. Perhaps China is fearing the same fate. US will go to any extent to displace China from the position of superpower. China cannot grab Taiwan, which is effective weapon in the hands of Pentagon. China is facing threats from Uighur, Hongkong and in Tibet. There is every likelihood that in the next fifty years, China will exhaust its natural resources and Russia may re-emerge once again a new super power with some democratic ideology.

 US will need Russia to prevent China from playing negative role in bi polar world .